National University System Institute for Policy Research

(858) 642-8498 Get Started

EconoMeter panel looks to next 6 months


Friday, July 15, 2016

View Article

Kelly Cunningham, National University System

Answer: NO

The economy appears to be slowing, not strengthening. Data we track monitoring economic trends indicate weakening over upcoming months. After some spring thawing, following relatively mild winter, prospects for the second half of the year continue to show uncertainty. Economic indicators are not consistent, but spreading persistent weakness evident from data-dependent business-cycle measures flashing caution. While job prospects remain mixed, world export markets and business investments are weakening, usually precursors for recession.